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Greens energized by Manly win

Monday night’s Nanaimo-Ladysmith federal byelection seems to be giving local Green supporters some momentum heading into the October general election. Paul Manly won the riding with a margin of around 5,000 votes in the preliminary count.
Manly
Green party candidate Paul Manly works right up to the end as he takes part in sign waving with supporters near his campaign office before the polls close in the Nanaimo-Ladysmith byelection in Nanaimo on Monday, May 6.

Monday night’s Nanaimo-Ladysmith federal byelection seems to be giving local Green supporters some momentum heading into the October general election.

Paul Manly won the riding with a margin of around 5,000 votes in the preliminary count. The NDP, which had held the riding under Sheila Malcolmson before she left federal politics to run successfully to be the area’s provincial MLA, finished third behind the Conservatives.

“It is an honour and a privilege to serve these communities, to serve you, and I will not let you down,” Manly told cheering supporters, shortly after media outlets projected his win May 6. “I am ready to hit the ground running in Ottawa.”

Manly’s victory doubles the Greens’ seat count in the House of Commons with just over five months to go until the general federal election on Oct. 21. It’s the biggest breakthrough for the party on the Island since leader Elizabeth May made history by winning Saanich-Gulf Islands in 2011.

Manly, who describes himself as a filmmaker, researcher and communications specialist, said his priorities over the next five months will include getting to work on the issues that voters raised on the doorsteps.

“There’s an affordability crisis around people having affordable places to live,” he said in an interview before polls closed. “We’ve got a lot of homeless folks here and that’s creating all kinds of other issues and problems for the community. So really that’s a top priority in the next five months.”

He added that a Green victory would send a strong signal to the other parties “to get serious about climate change and to be putting humans and the planet ahead of profits.”

Kim Darwin, president of the BC Green Party’s provincial riding association for Powell River-Sunshine Coast, said the Nanaimo-Ladysmith win, which followed major gains by Green candidates in Prince Edward Island’s provincial election, shows the Green message is starting to resonate with Canadian voters and concern over climate change is a big reason.

“As we’re seeing the true cost of climate inaction, it’s in our face on a daily basis now what the Greens have been talking about year over year, election after election,” she said.

Darwin, who is also a member of the federal Greens, said she also sees the Nanaimo-Ladysmith and P.E.I. results as a positive voter response to how the Greens do politics.

“People have lost faith in the old way of doing politics. I think you see that with voter apathy. I think each success that we have had here in Canada shows that the Greens really do politics differently and people have been able to follow that,” she said. “They like the evidence-based decision making, they like that there’s no power tripping or shmarmy backroom deals. They like that we work across party lines, that

we’re not whipped and we can truly represent our communities.”

Maureen Bodie, president of the Greens’ federal riding association for West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, also thinks climate change is a key issue attracting voters to the party.

“We are confident that with the three related trends of growing awareness and understanding of the science of climate breakdown, the Green wave across Canada and the world, the pressure from our brave and determined youth, plus enough hardworking, local volunteers, we will be sending a Green MP to Ottawa on Oct. 21,” Bodie said in a statement for Coast Reporter.

The Greens have yet to choose a local candidate for the coming federal election, but at least one potential candidate has put his name forward – Dana Taylor. Taylor finished second to West Vancouver-Sea to Sky incumbent Jordan Study of the BC Liberals in the 2017 provincial election.

The NDP is still in the midst of its candidate search.

With incumbent Liberal MP Pam Goldsmith-Jones announcing Wednesday that she would not seek re-election, the only party with a confirmed candidate for Oct. 21 is the Conservatives.

The Conservatives chose Gabrielle Loren at their May 5 nomination meeting.

The byelection results seem likely to highlight the slumping fortunes of the Liberals under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. But observers say it’s too soon to say what impact that will have on the general election.

“As anyone knows, the time between now and the next election is, while short, in the political world still long,” said Daniel Reeve, a political science instructor at Camosun College.

“A lot can happen in five months.”

Reeve said there’s a tendency to read too much into byelection results given that opposition candidates traditionally perform better than those of the governing party.

He said there’s no guarantee that Monday’s winner will win re-election in October, “because in the federal election, people are paying attention to the leaders, and the parties, and the so-called horse race.”

Reeve added that the Liberals could still turn things around. “So while Trudeau has ripped his own halo off his head and stomped it on the ground for all to see, that doesn’t mean that there’s no chance of a second term,” he said.

The three main parties split the three previous byelections this year. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh won Burnaby South, Conservative Scott Davidson took York-Simcoe in Ontario, and Liberal Rachel Bendayan claimed the Montreal riding of Outremont, which was previously held by former NDP leader Tom Mulcair.

– With files from Lindsay Kines, Victoria Times Colonist