The Buffalo Bills appeared vulnerable a year ago and the AFC East seemed there for the taking.
There were questions about who Josh Allen would be throwing to and whether the Bills' window being among the NFL's elite teams was beginning to close, while the New York Jets, Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots had plenty of hope.
Instead, the Bills dashed to their fifth straight division title, Allen won his first AP NFL MVP award and Sean McDermott's squad finished a victory short of reaching the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the Jets, Dolphins and Patriots watched the playoffs from home and spent the offseason regrouping and, in some cases, completely revamping and reloading.
Now, Allen and the Bills enter this season looking as good as ever and one of the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl, let alone a sixth consecutive AFC East title. They know they need to get over the hump of the playoffs — particularly Kansas City, which has eliminated Buffalo in four of the past five postseasons, including twice in the AFC championship game.
“You can’t win the Super Bowl without making the playoffs, and that’s our No. 1 goal,” Allen said. "That’s the standard that Coach McDermott set here for so long, is playoff-caliber. You don’t get into the playoffs, you don’t win the Super Bowl, it’s as simple as that. ... We’re just out here trying to get better.”
Same for the Jets and Patriots, who hired new coaches to try to change their fortunes with Aaron Glenn in New York and Mike Vrabel in New England — each returning to teams for which they once played.
“We have something we’re trying to create,” Glenn said. “I’m not going to end up talking about that or what those things are, but every day that’s the focus, nothing else. Take everything out.”
The Dolphins still have Mike McDaniel in charge and Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, but once lofty expectations have been replaced by doubts as to whether Miami is on its way back down.
“Instead of fighting stuff that’s based on stuff you can’t control, understanding that the only thing we can do is the daily investment into each other,” McDaniel said. “There’s a supreme clarity of focus of what matters and what doesn’t.”
Allen's allies
The Bills' offense returns mostly intact, including all five linemen. Buffalo also added what it hopes is an upgrade at wide receiver with Joshua Palmer, who'll be expected to stretch the field — something the passing game lacked a year ago.
Keon Coleman will be counted on to take another step forward and tight end Dalton Kincaid will try to regain his status as a top option after injuries slowed him.
Coordinator Joe Brady will also be able to lean on his running game with James Cook signed to a four-year extension — which should help take the pressure off Allen to have to scramble.
Maye-be better days
A 4-13 season in Jerod Mayo’s first year was enough for Patriots owner Robert Kraft to move on. He turned to another former New England player in Vrabel, who had success in transforming Tennessee into a regular playoff contender.
“We talk about the good, the bad and the (stuff) that gets you beat," Vrabel said, “and I think that they can tell the difference between those three now.”
The development of quarterback Drake Maye, who enters his second season with a revamped offensive line and some new playmakers, will be key. Maye was a positive during a dismal season last year and if he can make a big jump in Year 2, the Patriots could be at least a threat to Buffalo.
“Coach Vrabel came here and made it clear from Day 1: ‘Hey, drop your egos at the door. We’re here to work, we want guys to finish, work hard and give effort,'” Maye said. "I think we’re starting to see that and build that."
Taking flight
Glenn, who played eight of his 15 NFL seasons in New York, is well aware of the spotlight in the Big Apple. He has insisted since his hiring, along with that of GM Darren Mougey, that the Jets are building toward being a playoff contender.
Whether that happens this season, though, will largely depend on the development of quarterback Justin Fields. The 2021 first-round pick of Chicago is on his third team in five years, but Glenn and offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand believe he's a good fit for what will likely be a run-first offense.
“I like the concepts that we have,” Fields said. “I like what Tanner’s trying to do and implement the guys on offense and kind of in our playbook. He’s a great offensive-minded coach and just the stuff that we can get done, I think the sky’s the limit.”
Swims with the fishes?
Miami made the playoffs in each of McDaniel's first two seasons and seemed poised to challenge Buffalo for the division title.
Injuries to key players such as Tagovailoa, wide receiver Tyreek Hill and right tackle Austin Jackson took their toll, with the Dolphins struggling to a 2-6 start. They rebounded with a 6-3 finish, but this almost seems like a make-or-break season for McDaniel and GM Chris Grier.
The secondary, namely the cornerbacks, along with the depth on offense, questions on the offensive line and the health of Tagovailoa provide plenty of skepticism about the Dolphins.
“I wouldn’t necessarily say that it is a bunker mindset or a bunker mentality where we’re all kind of hunched up and it’s us against the world,” Tagovailoa said. “Really it’s us against ourselves, is kind of how we look at it.”
And in the AFC East, it seems it’s the Bills — and then everyone else. Again.
Predicted order of finish
Bills, Patriots, Jets, Dolphins.
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AP Sports Writers Kyle Hightower, Alanis Thames and John Wawrow contributed.
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AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/NFL
Dennis Waszak Jr., The Associated Press
