A steady drop in federal monitoring has created the worst data gap for Pacific salmon stocks in 70 years — a growing blind spot at least partly linked to the priorities of commercial fisheries, a new study has found.
The research, published in the Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, found nearly two-thirds of the salmon stocks that were historically monitored in B.C. and the Yukon have had no reported estimates between 2014 and 2023 — making it the worst decade of scientific monitoring since large-scale surveys began in the 1950s.
Emma Atkinson, a PhD researcher at the University of Alberta who led the study, said Vancouver Island is among the regions that have seen the largest decline in monitoring.
The Island is filled with salmon-bearing streams and rivers — from the capital region’s Goldstream River in the south to Port Hardy’s Keough River in the north — but only about 200 salmon populations are now being monitored, she said.
It’s a sharp decline from when about 600 distinct populations of coho and chum salmon on Vancouver Island and nearby mainland inlets were monitored during the 1970s and 80s, she said.
The decline in monitoring “has basically tracked the decline of fisheries,” she said, adding that there was an “abrupt” decline for Vancouver Island in the early 2000s.
Fraser sockeye was found to be the only population that has seen increased monitoring over the 10-year period. Atkinson said for three of five Pacific salmon species (coho, chum, and pink salmon), changes in monitoring closely mirrored commercial value, suggesting a “strong signal” that federal monitoring is at least partly motivated by the needs of commercial fisheries.
The researchers also found monitoring of the nearly 7,000 salmon populations in B.C. and Yukon has steadily declined since the 1980s.
Monitoring of coho and chum salmon saw the greatest declines, while pink salmon also saw major monitoring reductions in northern and central B.C., according to the study.
Today’s monitoring efforts, however, are often much higher in quality, said Atkinson, citing the Cowichan River as one example. “There are some systems that are still getting monitored really, really well, and there’s a bunch of systems that we just don’t have any information for.”
Atkinson said while it’s useful to have more precise estimates of specific populations, the trade-off is that scientists can’t look at broader trends across different groups like they were able to do in the past.
A simple stream walk — even by an empty creek — is still important monitoring work, she said. “Recording a zero count doesn’t feel as exciting as walking up a creek and counting hundreds of fish, but those zeros are critically important.”
Atkinson said the annual salmon counts underpin scientists’ ability to assess status of fish populations, how climate change, industrial activity and fishing are impacting fish, and whether recovery actions by local groups are working.
While not “glamorous”, Atkinson says this kind of data is a “cornerstone” of the work around salmon monitoring.
In one striking example, monitoring of coho populations was found to have dropped off in the early 2000s after a fishing moratorium on the species was introduced, said Eric Hertz, an analyst at the Pacific Salmon Foundation who co-authored the study. “We’re relying on fewer indicator populations to represent broader areas of the coast,” said Hertz.
In 2019, a lack of sufficient data to assess trends in salmon abundance led Canada’s Pacific salmon fishery to withdraw from the Marine Stewardship Council certification program rather than risk an audit with a high probability of failure.
Greg Taylor, a fisheries consultant who was not involved in the study, said it is difficult to argue Canada is operating a sustainably-managed Pacific salmon fishery.
“It’s getting more difficult to get access to international markets because people don’t want to buy non-MSC-certified salmon,” he said. “It’s an egregious failure on the part of DFO.”
Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) is planning to cut its spending by more than $1 billion next year, a 21.6 per cent drop.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has also directed all federal departments — save the the Department of Defence, the RCMP, Canada Border Services Agency, the Supreme Court and the Parliamentary Budget Office — to cut operational spending by 7.5 per cent for the 2026-27 fiscal year, 10 per cent the following year and 15 per cent in 2028-29.
The cuts are meant to help pay for tax cuts and an increase in military spending.
Taylor said it’s “frightening” to think of what this could mean for salmon monitoring.
The study notes that new technologies and environmental DNA analyses could reduce costs and improve the quality of monitoring. Drones and the use of artificial intelligence could be used to help count fish, it said.
“I think there’s some promising shifts toward First Nations monitoring. A lot of DFO monitoring is being handed over to them on the ground,” he added. “It makes a lot of sense.”
— With files from Michael John Lo, Times Colonist
