An independent advocacy group encouraging strategic voting in the upcoming federal election has released a poll showing a commanding lead for the New Democratic Party (NDP) in the North Island-Powell River riding.
As of September 22, the independent, non-partisan poll shows NDP with a 14-point lead on Conservative Party of Canada, a 28-point lead on Liberal Party of Canada and 32-point lead on Green Party of Canada.
The Canada-wide public-opinion survey, released publicly on Wednesday, September 23, was conducted by pollsters at Environics Research and paid for by Leadnow, an independent advocacy group. Leadnow commissioned the surveys in 31 ridings that it identified as swing ridings.
Telephone surveys of between 500 to 600 people in each of the 31 ridings were conducted between September 18 to 21. Just over 550 people were surveyed in North Island-Powell River and the poll has a 4.2 per cent margin of error.
Leadnow is calling its campaign Vote Together. The polls provide voters with data so they can cast their ballot strategically to elect the candidate who has the best chance of beating the Conservative candidate, said Matthew Carroll, Leadnow’s director of engagement innovation.
“We’re trying to get people in key swing ridings the best local information possible,” said Carroll. “You see these national, what I call ‘horse-race,’ polls and they actually tell you absolutely nothing about what is going on in your community.”
While some voters in this election may be considering voting more strategically, historically the phenomena has been fraught with difficulty, said Hamish Telford, department head for political science at University of Fraser Valley.
“The reason why it’s so challenging to be effective is everybody has got to make the same decision,” said Telford. ”If the goal is to get rid of the Conservatives, then everybody has to agree that it’s the NDP candidate, or the Liberal candidate, that is in the best position to do it. And that’s what they are hoping to pull off without coordination.”
Telford added there is evidence to suggest that strategic voting is not as influential as thought.
“People do vote their conscience more often than we give credit,” said Telford. “People like to vote their preference, as opposed to swallowing some pride to vote for a second or third choice to achieve some other end, even if it is a desirable end.”
A number of websites specialize in making predications based on national polls and data from the last election, but it is not as effective as just asking people in ridings who they intend to vote for, said Carroll.
“It’s kind of a service to the community and electorate as a whole to make sure we get good quality information into the hands of as many voters as possible so they can make their own decision,” he said.
It is not common practice in Canada for voters to have access to riding-level data as it can cost thousands of dollars for the data in each riding, said Carroll.
“The parties conduct their own polls, but that information stays internal,” he said.
The Environics survey was a fairly standard voter intention poll, he said.
“We ask them who they plan to vote for and if they are not sure, which way they are leaning,” added Carroll.
Pollsters also asked voters two addition questions: whether the voter is casting his or her ballot to defeat the Conservatives, and would the voter consider changing his or her vote to support the non-Conservative candidate who had the best chance at winning.
“Nationally, six out of 10 opposition voters said they would be willing to change their vote,” said Caroll. “It really shows that there is a desire for this local information that gives voters this context.”
