COLUMBUS — In 1837, two brothers-in-law living in Ohio — one a candle maker, the other a soap maker — merged their businesses to form what later became the multinational juggernaut Procter & Gamble.
Nearly two centuries later, the company — which makes everything from toothpaste to diapers — could be the canary in the coal mine as the U.S. economy wobbles under the weight of President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff agenda.
Procter & Gamble announced last month that it was increasing prices on its products.
Many Ohioans say they are bracing for diminished business and higher costs as a result of tariffs, while others see Trump's plan as the only way to revive the state's manufacturing base.
"I'm still confident that things still need to play out," said Mark Patterson in Springfield, west of the state capital. "And I think it's kind of a wait-and-see at this point."
Patterson runs a small sheet metal fabrication business and has two other employees. He said he's seen a boost in orders and thinks it's a sign that companies are prioritizing American-made products.
Trump has claimed that his steep tariffs on imports from around the world will accomplish many things: the restoration of American manufacturing, trade deals on the United States' terms and mountains of cash for the federal government.
Canada was hit with 35 per cent tariffs but the levies exclude goods compliant with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement on trade. The president also slapped high tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper and automobiles.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has said Ohio is likely to be the seventh-most tariff-affected state. Canada is Ohio's largest export market — the state sent $21.4 billion in goods north and imported $17.9 billion in Canadian products in 2023.
Ohio is part of the integrated automobile sector that links Canada and the United States. Honda and the Big Three automakers — Ford, Stellantis and General Motors — employ thousands of workers in vehicle and parts manufacturing in Ohio, while smaller businesses in the state support the automotive supply chain.
"The parts industry is very, very fragile," said Michael Gorman, a professor of business analytics and operations management at the University of Dayton.
The industry works on thin margins and manufacturers can employ complicated logistics and delivery arrangements. Many companies in the auto sector stockpiled supplies as the tariffs loomed. Those supplies are running low now.
Gorman said that while larger companies have more flexibility to switch suppliers for some components, smaller firms may not be able to survive. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has said companies with fewer than 500 workers will be hit especially hard by the duties.
"When orders are unpredictable, then orders based on those orders are even more unpredictable because everybody's guessing what everybody else is going to do," Gorman said. "And right now, with the high level of uncertainty, it's not clear what the future holds."
Ohio's auto industry isn't the only one with reasons to worry.
Hoster Brewing is the oldest brewery in Columbus; it pulled its first pint in 1836. Ian Hansford, bar manager at Hoster, said profit margins are dwindling as the brewery gets hammered by tariffs on critical inputs like steel, aluminum and grain.
"Our costs have gone up about 30 per cent just to craft beer from start to finish," he said.
While the brewery hasn't increased its prices yet, Hansford said the current tariff climate is "not sustainable at all."
"I think the … song and dance of the American government needs to end eventually, because it's only hurting American people," he said.
Ohioans are proud of the famous businesses and brands with roots in their state. The Wendy's burger chain was launched here, as was KitchenAid, which assembled its first stand mixer in 1919 in Springfield. Goodyear Tire started in Akron in 1898.
Residents also talk about Ohio's connections to General Electric, which recently announced it will invest $3 billion to expand U.S. manufacturing and create 1,000 jobs over five years. None of those new jobs will be in Ohio.
U.S. Vice-President JD Vance, a former Ohio senator, has stood by Trump's tariffs and Sen. Bernie Moreno — like many other Republicans in the state — also has defended the duties. They promise the long-term benefits will outweigh the short-term pain.
Ohio has long had a neighbourly relationship with Canada, said Democratic state Rep. Anita Somani. She said she's worried about the damage being caused by decisions made in the White House, especially since many Canadian companies invest in Ohio.
"They don’t know what to do," Somani said of the Canadian businesses. "A lot of the other companies aren't sure how to invest because nobody knows if the tariffs are going to increase, decrease, stay the same. And when you have that uncertainty (in your) cost of doing business, you don't do business."
Manufacturing employment has been declining throughout the United States for decades, including in Ohio, but there have been some promising signs in the state lately.
The Ohio Manufacturers Association said in a recent report that the state remains a manufacturing "powerhouse," citing recent investments and Intel's plans for a massive new computer chip fabrication plant. Intel recently announced it's slowing construction of the Ohio site.
Behind that optimism is a landscape dotted with empty warehouses and shuttered factories — remnants of industries that have died or moved on.
Ohio was long a swing state but has shifted over the last 12 years toward the Republican party, said Dan Birdsong, a professor of political science at the University of Dayton.
In 2016 and 2020, Trump won Ohio by eight percentage points — that margin expanded to 11 points in last year's election.
But areas of the state where Trump has seen his strongest support may also be the ones most at risk from his trade policies. Recent polling shows only 48 per cent of Ohioans approve of Trump on trade, Birdsong said.
"You have some really strong supporters of the president, but also industries that might be more harmed by the trade practices," Birdsong said.
"That's the question — with tariffs and with trade and the changes, is this going to have a negative impact on the regions where Trump saw a lot of his support over the last three election cycles?"
All presidents are given a bit of leeway early in a term and Trump's most ardent supporters seem willing to give him time, Birdsong said. More traditional Republicans and the Independents who backed Trump in 2024 seem to be more wary ahead of next year's midterm elections.
Birdsong said it may ultimately come down to voters' pocketbooks.
"If the economy goes south, if it gets bad, then it puts the Republicans on defence," he said. "And allows Democrats to at least articulate a vision for why they should have some more representation."
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 16, 2025.
Kelly Geraldine Malone, The Canadian Press
