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BCREA: Higher mortgage rates will slow housing activity through 2023

British Columbia Real Estate Association releases 2022 second quarter housing forecast

British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2022 Second Quarter Housing Forecast today.

Multiple Listing Service residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 22 per cent from a record high 2021 to 97,240 units this year. In 2023, MLS residential sales are forecast to fall an additional 12.4 per cent to 85,150 units.

“After a strong first quarter, BC markets are now adjusting to a much different interest rate environment,” stated BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson, in a media release. “With mortgage rates surpassing 4 per cent for the first time in over a decade, the housing market over the next two years may have very little resemblance to the housing market of the past year.

“On the supply side, we have begun to see active listings move off of record lows and resale inventories trend back toward balance. However, because inventories reached such low levels over the past year, the journey back to balance may take up to a year or more in some areas. As markets adjust to the new interest rate landscape, we anticipate that prices may be somewhat volatile but will ultimately flatten out through 2023.”

 

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